august 2013 outlook

Until recently July in the UK has been a very dry month with well above normal temperatures under a ridge of high pressure extending across NW Europe. The hottest day was Monday 22nd reaching 33.5C in west London. This has now changed after thunderstorms tracked NE on the 23rd and NW Europe is now dominated by low pressure to the west of Ireland and a more active jet stream running SW to NE from N.Spain to the North Sea. There is the risk of more heavy downpours to end the month tracking northwards in the jet stream, but temperatures gradually falling back to nearer normal. 

As we head to early August low pressure will become centred to the NW of the UK and near Iceland with a more westerly flow from the Atlantic to the UK. This will bring a showery spell of weather and temperatures near normal in the east and slightly below in the west of the UK. Precipitation a little above normal, especially in the west. The above normal temperatures mainly confined to the southern half of Europe from Spain eastwards to Italy, Balkans and Turkey with dry and mostly sunny weather. Temperatures typically in the mid 30s Celsius and the higher 30s in southern Spain and Turkey. Across central Europe temperatures nearer normal in the mid to upper 20s, but slightly below normal for a time in NW France.

 

By mid August pressure is expected to build across Europe again as a trough develops over the Atlantic and the jet stream takes a more southerly meander. The above normal temperatures in the south of Europe should then move northwards again, and temperatures will rise over the UK to above normal in southern and eastern areas for a while as winds veer to the south. As the trough approaches from the Atlantic some active fronts may bring heavy showers and perhaps some thundery downpours later in August to the UK, with quite humid weather too, before cooler weather then reaches much of the UK and NW France towards the end of the month from the west. Away from the NW much of central and southern Europe is likely to have a very warm second half to August with plenty of dry weather too.